Modena 1-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Spezia meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Modena (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Modena at home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Spezia have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Spezia have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Spezia arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Spezia edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Modena 0–1 Spezia — a Spezia win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Spezia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 43% | Spezia 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Modena surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Spezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.90 xG and Spezia 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.052 / defence 0.941 | Spezia attack 1.143 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.095. Spezia bring a tight defence (rating 0.696, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Modena's projected output down. Data: built from Modena's last 63 games and Spezia's last 63.
Result probabilities: Modena 27% | Draw 32% | Spezia 41%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.77 | Draw 3.08 | Spezia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Modena's last 10 home games and Spezia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Modena 60% (last 10 home games) | Spezia 10% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 27% | Draw 32% | Spezia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Modena 0.90 / Spezia 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.052 / def 0.941 | Spezia attack 1.143 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Spezia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Spezia xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Spezia FAQs
What time does Modena vs Spezia kick off?
Modena vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Spezia?
Modena 1 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Modena vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Spezia part of?
Modena vs Spezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 27% chance of winning, Spezia a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Modena and Spezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Modena vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Modena's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (1.14x) against Modena's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 63 games and Spezia's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
27%
3.77
32%
3.08
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Modena xG
Total xG
2.07
1.18
Spezia xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.8 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Spezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Modena and 1.18 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Modena have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 16W 29D 18L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Spezia's form line: 22W 27D 14L from 63 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Modena against 1.48 for Spezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 31 home games (11W 11D 9L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 8W 14D 9L from their last 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.21 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Spezia
Blended
Modena (Home) vs Spezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Modena vs Spezia Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Spezia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 29D 18L in their last 63 games (1.22 PPG), while Spezia have gone 22W 27D 14L in their last 63 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Spezia away?
Modena's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.42 PPG; Spezia away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Modena or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Spezia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Modena have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won Modena 3-0 Spezia on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Modena
3
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Spezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Spezia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 2, Spezia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Spezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Modena 3-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Spezia?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 52%, Spezia 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Modena) and 42% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Spezia in 39%; Modena have failed to score in 26% of games; Spezia in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Spezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Spezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Modena's recent matches and 39% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Modena and Spezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Modena's recent games and 42% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Spezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Modena's recent matches and 61% of Spezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Spezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 26, as Modena and Spezia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.90 xG and Spezia 1.18 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Spezia attack 1.14 / defence 0.70, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 27% | Draw 32% | Spezia 41%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 43%, Spezia 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.22 PPG, Spezia 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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