Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Spezia at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Spezia welcome Palermo to Stadio Alberto Picco. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia at Stadio Alberto Picco this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Picco. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Spezia are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Picco than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Spezia have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Spezia, 1 for Palermo and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 45% versus Palermo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 42% | Palermo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.69 xG and Palermo 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.258 / defence 0.799 | Palermo attack 0.925 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.095. Spezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Spezia's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Spezia games / 62 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 57% | Draw 27% | Palermo 16%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Palermo 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Spezia (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Spezia 50% | Palermo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (3 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 1 | Palermo 1W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Spezia 3 – 4 Palermo • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Spezia 33% / Draw 33% / Palermo 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 57% / draw 27% / away 16% • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.50 (46% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 47% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Spezia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W • Palermo (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L • Spezia home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | CS 5 • Palermo away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Form edge: Spezia lead by 0.60 PPG (1.80 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Spezia): Poisson projects 1.69 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Palermo): Poisson projects 0.81 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.50 (46% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 47% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Spezia — Spezia at 57% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 57% | Draw 27% | Palermo 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Spezia 1.69 / Palermo 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.258 / def 0.799 | Palermo attack 0.925 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Spezia (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Palermo xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Palermo kick off?
Spezia vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Palermo?
Spezia 2 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Spezia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Palermo part of?
Spezia vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 57% chance of winning, Palermo a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spezia and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Palermo?
• Record (3 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 1 | Palermo 1W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Spezia 3 – 4 Palermo • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Spezia 33% / Draw 33% / Palermo 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 57% / draw 27% / away 16% • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.50 (46% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 47% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Spezia and Palermo in?
• Spezia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W • Palermo (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L • Spezia home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | CS 5 • Palermo away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Form edge: Spezia lead by 0.60 PPG (1.80 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Spezia): Poisson projects 1.69 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Palermo): Poisson projects 0.81 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.30 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.50 (46% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 47% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Spezia — Spezia at 57% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Spezia vs Palermo?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture