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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Salernitana travel to Stadio dei Marmi to take on Carrarese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Carrarese's home record at Stadio dei Marmi: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.

Salernitana — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Salernitana's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Carrarese) versus 0.90 (Salernitana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Carrarese's 20% rate and Salernitana's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Carrarese, 1 for Salernitana and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 1–4 with Salernitana winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Carrarese in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Salernitana in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 36% versus Salernitana 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 36% | Salernitana 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.03 xG and Salernitana 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.810 / defence 1.043 | Salernitana attack 0.532 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.095. Data: 25 Carrarese games / 25 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 44% | Draw 36% | Salernitana 20%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.27 | Draw 2.78 | Salernitana 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Salernitana's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 20% | Salernitana 30% BTTS from recent games.

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