🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Palermo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 26 as Palermo welcome Mantova to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.

Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Mantova have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 1.00 PPG, Mantova 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Palermo, 0 for Mantova and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Palermo in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).

Mantova in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 48% versus Mantova 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 36% | Mantova 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.53 xG and Mantova 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.936 / defence 0.848 | Mantova attack 1.042 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.091. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Palermo games / 25 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Palermo 49% | Draw 29% | Mantova 22%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Mantova 4.55. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 30% | Mantova 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights