Sampdoria 1-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sampdoria at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Modena at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Modena have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Modena's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sampdoria's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sampdoria have won 2, Modena 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with Sampdoria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Modena trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 61% versus Modena 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 48% | Modena 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.08 xG and Modena 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.783 / defence 0.960 | Modena attack 0.980 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.102. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Sampdoria games / 62 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 34% | Draw 34% | Modena 32%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Modena 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Sampdoria dominate the H2H record, yet Modena are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 40% | Modena 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 34% | Draw 34% | Modena 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Sampdoria 1.08 / Modena 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.783 / def 0.960 | Modena attack 0.980 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Modena xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Modena kick off?
Sampdoria vs Modena kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Modena?
Sampdoria 1 - 0 Modena.
Where is Sampdoria vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Modena part of?
Sampdoria vs Modena is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 34% chance of winning, Modena a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sampdoria and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Modena?
Record (3 meetings): Sampdoria 2W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Modena in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Modena (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.78x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
34%
2.92
34%
2.96
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.12
1.04
Modena xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.04 for Modena, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 62 games, going 20W 19D 23L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.24 PPG from 62 outings (16W 29D 17L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.27 PPG, Modena on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 10W 8D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (5W 18D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.16 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Modena in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 20W 19D 23L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while Modena have gone 16W 29D 17L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Modena away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.23 PPG; Modena away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Modena runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 4, Modena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Modena 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Modena?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 52%, Modena 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sampdoria) and 45% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 26% of games; Modena in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sampdoria's games and 64% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sampdoria's recent games and 45% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Modena tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Modena in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Modena 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Modena 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.08 xG and Modena 1.04 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Modena landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.78 / defence 0.96 against Modena attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 34% | Draw 34% | Modena 32%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 48%, Modena 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Modena's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.27 PPG, Modena 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.