Cesena 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cesena vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi to face Cesena in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 February 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Cesena's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cesena are significantly better at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi than their overall form suggests.
Pisa (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pisa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pisa are 1.10 PPG clear of Cesena in recent Serie B fixtures (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cesena lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cesena — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Pisa — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 56% versus Pisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 44% | Pisa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.00 xG and Pisa 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.929 / defence 1.088 | Pisa attack 1.023 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.088. Data: 25 Cesena games / 63 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 28% | Draw 33% | Pisa 39%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Pisa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Cesena 60% | Pisa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 28% | Draw 33% | Pisa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Cesena 1.00 / Pisa 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.929 / def 1.088 | Pisa attack 1.023 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Pisa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Pisa xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Pisa kick off?
Cesena vs Pisa kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Pisa?
Cesena 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Cesena vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Pisa part of?
Cesena vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 28% chance of winning, Pisa a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cesena and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Cesena 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Cesena and Pisa in?
Cesena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Pisa (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cesena's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.02x) against Cesena's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
28%
3.52
33%
3.07
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.21
1.21
Pisa xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cesena and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Cesena and 1.21 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cesena's recent record stands at 9W 6D 10L from 25 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 15W 6D 4L across 25 games — 2.04 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cesena heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cesena have managed 6W 4D 2L from 12 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Cesena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pisa's away record stands at 6W 3D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cesena are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.56 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 games (1.32 PPG), while Pisa have gone 15W 6D 4L in their last 25 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Pisa away?
Cesena's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.83 PPG; Pisa away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Cesena or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cesena have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Pisa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cesena
1
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Cesena have won 0, Pisa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Cesena 1-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 58%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cesena) and 42% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pisa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Cesena's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cesena vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cesena's recent games and 42% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Pisa tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pisa in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cesena and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena and Pisa finished level at 1-1 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.00 xG and Pisa 1.21 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against Pisa attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 28% | Draw 33% | Pisa 39%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 44%, Pisa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.