Frosinone 1-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Frosinone face Reggiana.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Frosinone and Reggiana meet at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Frosinone's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Frosinone have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Reggiana have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Reggiana away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Frosinone against 1.30 for Reggiana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Frosinone, 1 for Reggiana and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Frosinone 0–2 Reggiana — a Reggiana win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 59% versus Reggiana 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 54% | Reggiana 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 0.97 xG and Reggiana 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.727 / defence 1.335 | Reggiana attack 0.892 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.091. Frosinone's attack rating of 0.727 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Frosinone's defence rating of 1.335 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reggiana's projected output up. Data: built from Frosinone's last 25 games and Reggiana's last 63.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 26% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 42%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 3.80 | Draw 3.19 | Reggiana 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggiana are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Frosinone 40% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 26% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Frosinone 0.97 / Reggiana 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.727 / def 1.335 | Reggiana attack 0.892 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Reggiana xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frosinone vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Frosinone vs Reggiana kick off?
Frosinone vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Reggiana?
Frosinone 1 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Frosinone vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Reggiana part of?
Frosinone vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 26% chance of winning, Reggiana a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Frosinone and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Frosinone vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (0.73) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.89x) against Frosinone's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Frosinone's last 25 games and Reggiana's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
26%
3.80
31%
3.19
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.27
1.30
Reggiana xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
7%
13.92
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.4 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frosinone vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.30 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Frosinone's recent record stands at 12W 21D 30L from 63 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Reggiana, meanwhile, have gone 17W 24D 22L across 63 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Frosinone against 1.19 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 9W 10D 12L from their last 31 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggiana's away record stands at 10W 9D 12L across their last 31 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Frosinone are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 0.98 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
Frosinone (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Frosinone
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frosinone vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Frosinone and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 12W 21D 30L in their last 63 games (0.90 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 17W 24D 22L in their last 63 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.19 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Reggiana in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Frosinone and Reggiana, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Frosinone have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
1
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frosinone vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Reggiana?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Frosinone have won 2, Reggiana have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Frosinone 1-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Reggiana?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 58%, Reggiana 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Frosinone) and 42% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 32%; Frosinone have failed to score in 36% of games; Reggiana in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frosinone vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Frosinone and Reggiana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Frosinone's recent matches and 42% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Frosinone and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Frosinone's recent games and 42% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Frosinone's recent matches and 61% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone and Reggiana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 26, as Frosinone and Reggiana drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 0.97 xG and Reggiana 1.30 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.73 / defence 1.33 against Reggiana attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 26% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 42%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 54%, Reggiana 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 0.90 PPG, Reggiana 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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