Modena 0-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Modena face Palermo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Palermo at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Modena stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Modena have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Palermo have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Palermo's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Modena 1.60 PPG, Palermo 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Modena have won 0, Palermo 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2023, ended Modena 2–5 Palermo — a Palermo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (last 45 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Palermo trading profile (last 45 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 53% versus Palermo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 44% | Palermo 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Modena surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Palermo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.90 xG and Palermo 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.959 / defence 0.910 | Palermo attack 1.247 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.179. Palermo have an above-average attack rating of 1.247, which lifts their away xG to 1.34. Data: built from Modena's last 45 games and Palermo's last 45.
Result probabilities: Modena 21% | Draw 36% | Palermo 43%. Fair-value odds: Modena 4.72 | Draw 2.81 | Palermo 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Modena 40% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 21% | Draw 36% | Palermo 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Modena 0.90 / Palermo 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.959 / def 0.910 | Palermo attack 1.247 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Palermo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Palermo xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Palermo FAQs
What time does Modena vs Palermo kick off?
Modena vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Palermo?
Modena 0 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Modena vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Palermo part of?
Modena vs Palermo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 9) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 21% chance of winning, Palermo a 43% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Modena and Palermo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Modena vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 45 games and Palermo's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
21%
4.72
36%
2.81
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Modena xG
Total xG
2.23
1.34
Palermo xG
4.72
21%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
6%
18.00
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 14.3 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Palermo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Modena and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Modena and 1.34 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Modena have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 16W 12D 17L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Palermo's form line: 16W 17D 12L from 45 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.33 PPG, Palermo on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 23 home games (9W 9D 5L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 6W 9D 8L from their last 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.33 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
Modena (Home) vs Palermo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Modena vs Palermo Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Palermo in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while Palermo have gone 16W 17D 12L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Palermo away?
Modena's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.57 PPG; Palermo away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Modena or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Palermo in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Mar 2023, when Palermo won Palermo 5-2 Modena.
Modena's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Modena
3
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Palermo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Palermo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 0, Palermo have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Palermo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Modena 0-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 48%, Palermo 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Modena) and 48% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Palermo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Palermo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Modena's games and 65% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Modena and Palermo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Modena's recent games and 48% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Palermo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Modena's recent matches and 78% of Palermo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Modena 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.90 xG and Palermo 1.34 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Modena fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Palermo attack 1.25 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 21% | Draw 36% | Palermo 43%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Palermo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.33 PPG, Palermo 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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