Ascoli 1-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ascoli host Sampdoria at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ascoli are significantly better at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Sampdoria have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ascoli 0.90 PPG, Sampdoria 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 48% versus Sampdoria 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 39% | Sampdoria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.28 xG and Sampdoria 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 1.129 / defence 0.779 | Sampdoria attack 0.844 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.167. Ascoli's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Ascoli games / 8 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 45% | Draw 36% | Sampdoria 19%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.22 | Draw 2.78 | Sampdoria 5.26. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 30% | Sampdoria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 45% | Draw 36% | Sampdoria 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Ascoli 1.28 / Sampdoria 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 1.129 / def 0.779 | Sampdoria attack 0.844 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Sampdoria xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Sampdoria kick off?
Ascoli vs Sampdoria kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Sampdoria?
Ascoli 1 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Ascoli vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Sampdoria part of?
Ascoli vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 45% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 19% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ascoli and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Sampdoria in?
Ascoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (1.13) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
45%
2.22
36%
2.77
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.04
0.77
Sampdoria xG
2.22
45%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
5%
18.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 9.9 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.77 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 14W 13D 19L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria's form line: 4W 12D 30L from 46 games, 0.52 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ascoli are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 3W 5D 14L from 22 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.67 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 4W 12D 30L in their last 46 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Sampdoria away?
Ascoli's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.36 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ascoli
1
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Sampdoria?
From 2 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 0, Sampdoria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2024, when Sampdoria 2-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 46%, Sampdoria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Ascoli) and 46% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ascoli have failed to score in 36% of games; Sampdoria in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ascoli's recent matches and 50% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Ascoli's recent games and 46% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 9, as Ascoli and Sampdoria drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.28 xG and Sampdoria 0.77 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 1.13 / defence 0.78 against Sampdoria attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 45% | Draw 36% | Sampdoria 19%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 39%, Sampdoria 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.