Cosenza 3-0 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cosenza at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Lecco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cosenza and Lecco meet at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lecco have collected 0.20 PPG across 5 Serie B outings this season: 0W 1D 4L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lecco have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Cosenza's favour (1.50 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Cosenza — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Lecco — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cosenza 60% and Lecco 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 60% | Lecco 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.40 xG and Lecco 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.143 / defence 1.102 | Lecco attack 0.736 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.179. Data: 46 Cosenza games / 5 Lecco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 35% | Lecco 22%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | Lecco 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Lecco 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 35% | Lecco 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Cosenza 1.40 / Lecco 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.143 / def 1.102 | Lecco attack 0.736 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Lecco xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Lecco kick off?
Cosenza vs Lecco kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Lecco?
Cosenza 3 - 0 Lecco.
Where is Cosenza vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Lecco part of?
Cosenza vs Lecco is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 43% chance of winning, Lecco a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cosenza and Lecco will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Lecco?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Lecco in?
Cosenza (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Lecco (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cosenza's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Lecco's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Lecco's attack (0.74x) against Cosenza's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 46/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
43%
2.31
35%
2.88
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.35
0.96
Lecco xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
5%
18.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.96 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Lecco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cosenza's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lecco, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lecco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cosenza by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecco heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cosenza have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lecco in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Lecco
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Lecco in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Lecco have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cosenza
0
Draws
0
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Lecco?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Lecco have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Lecco last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Lecco 1-3 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Lecco?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 60%, Lecco 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cosenza and 60% for Lecco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecco in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Lecco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cosenza's games and 60% of Lecco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Lecco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cosenza's matches and 60% of Lecco's.
Do Cosenza and Lecco tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Lecco in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cosenza run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lecco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Lecco 3-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.40 xG and Lecco 0.96 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lecco landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.14 / defence 1.10 against Lecco attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 43% | Draw 35% | Lecco 22%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 60%, Lecco 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Lecco's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.20. Form held, and they took the win. Cosenza scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Lecco managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.