Venezia 3-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Parma's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Parma have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Parma are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Venezia 0W, Parma 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Parma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Parma — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 62% versus Parma 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 51% | Parma 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.21 xG and Parma 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.231 / defence 0.975 | Parma attack 1.423 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.167. Parma have an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Venezia games / 46 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 25% | Draw 31% | Parma 44%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Parma 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 60% | Parma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 25% | Draw 31% | Parma 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Venezia 1.21 / Parma 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.231 / def 0.975 | Parma attack 1.423 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Parma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Parma xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Parma kick off?
Venezia vs Parma kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Parma?
Venezia 3 - 2 Parma.
Where is Venezia vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Parma part of?
Venezia vs Parma is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 25% chance of winning, Parma a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Venezia and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Parma?
Record (2 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Venezia and Parma in?
Venezia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Venezia's attack at 1.23x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.42x) against Venezia's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
25%
3.95
31%
3.23
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.83
1.62
Parma xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
5%
19.94
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Venezia and 1.62 for Parma, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 17W 13D 17L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma's form line: 23W 12D 12L from 47 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Venezia against 1.72 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.43 PPG from 23 outings (9W 6D 8L).
On the road, Parma have gone 9W 8D 6L from 23 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.36 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Parma in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Parma in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 17W 13D 17L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Parma have gone 23W 12D 12L in their last 47 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.43 PPG; Parma away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Venezia or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Parma in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Venezia
2
Draws
3
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Parma have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Parma 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 65%, Parma 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Venezia) and 44% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 30%; Parma in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Venezia's games and 48% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Venezia's recent games and 44% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Parma tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Parma in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Parma 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Parma 3-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.21 xG and Parma 1.62 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.23 / defence 0.97 against Parma attack 1.42 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 25% | Draw 31% | Parma 44%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 51%, Parma 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.36 PPG, Parma 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.