Como 1-3 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to take on Como. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 October 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Como — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Como have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Como's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Como have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Como, 2 for Cremonese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Como in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 51% versus Cremonese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 40% | Cremonese 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.34 xG and Cremonese 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.152 / defence 0.948 | Cremonese attack 1.052 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.182. Data: 45 Como games / 8 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 37% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 29%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Cremonese 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Como 70% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 37% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Como 1.34 / Cremonese 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.152 / def 0.948 | Cremonese attack 1.052 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Como (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Cremonese xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Cremonese kick off?
Como vs Cremonese kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Cremonese?
Como 1 - 3 Cremonese.
Where is Como vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Cremonese part of?
Como vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Como a 37% chance of winning, Cremonese a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Como and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Como 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Como and Cremonese in?
Como (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Como's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Como's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
37%
2.71
34%
2.93
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Como xG
Total xG
2.52
1.18
Cremonese xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Como and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Como and 1.18 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Como come into this having played 45 games, going 14W 19D 12L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Como, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 0.82 PPG from 45 outings (7W 16D 22L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Como carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Cremonese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Como's home form reads 10W 7D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (3W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Como are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.96 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Early Season
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Como have gone 14W 19D 12L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 7W 16D 22L in their last 45 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Cremonese away?
Como's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.76 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Como or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cremonese in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Como and Cremonese runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Como won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Como's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Como
1
Draws
4
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Como have won 1, Cremonese have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cremonese 1-4 Como.
Who has won more matches between Como and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 52%, Cremonese 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Como) and 52% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Como's games and 67% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Como vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Como's recent games and 52% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Cremonese tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Como.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Como 1-3 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.34 xG and Cremonese 1.18 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against Cremonese attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 45/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 37% | Draw 34% | Cremonese 29%, with Como to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 40%, Cremonese 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Cremonese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Como (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.