Palermo 2-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Palermo take on Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renzo Barbera plays host to Palermo versus Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sudtirol have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Palermo, 1.60 for Sudtirol — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Palermo 0W, Sudtirol 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 54% versus Sudtirol 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palermo 43% | Sudtirol 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.10 xG and Sudtirol 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.086 / defence 0.892 | Sudtirol attack 1.062 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.171. Data: 44 Palermo games / 44 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 32% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 32%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Sudtirol 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 60% | Sudtirol 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 32% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Palermo 1.10 / Sudtirol 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.086 / def 0.892 | Sudtirol attack 1.062 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sudtirol xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Sudtirol kick off?
Palermo vs Sudtirol kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Palermo 2 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Palermo vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Sudtirol part of?
Palermo vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 32% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Palermo and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sudtirol?
Record (2 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Palermo and Sudtirol in?
Palermo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.09x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.06x) against Palermo's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
36%
2.75
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.21
1.11
Sudtirol xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Palermo and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Palermo and 1.11 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palermo come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 17D 12L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.68 PPG from 44 outings (18W 20D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Palermo against 1.68 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Palermo's home form reads 9W 8D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.67 points per game from 21 outings (9W 8D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.14 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 15W 17D 12L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 18W 20D 6L in their last 44 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Sudtirol away?
Palermo's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.67 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Palermo or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sudtirol?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 5, Sudtirol have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Palermo 3-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Sudtirol?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 43%, Sudtirol 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Palermo and 19% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sudtirol in 52%; Palermo have failed to score in 33% of games; Sudtirol in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Palermo's recent matches and 33% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Palermo's recent games and 19% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Sudtirol 2-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.10 xG and Sudtirol 1.11 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.09 / defence 0.89 against Sudtirol attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 32% | Draw 36% | Sudtirol 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 43%, Sudtirol 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.41 PPG, Sudtirol 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.