Bari 1-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Bari take on Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bari welcome Modena to Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bari have gone 1W 7D 2L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bari's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bari are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Modena — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Modena have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Modena's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Bari's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Bari have won 1, Modena 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Bari 1–1 Modena — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bari in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 73%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Modena in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 48% versus Modena 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 30% | Modena 44%). Note also that Modena surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Bari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 73% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.11 xG and Modena 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.030 / defence 0.915 | Modena attack 0.894 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.193. Data: built from Bari's last 47 games and Modena's last 46.
Result probabilities: Bari 34% | Draw 38% | Modena 28%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.90 | Draw 2.64 | Modena 3.61. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bari 50% (last 10 home games) | Modena 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 10 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 34% | Draw 38% | Modena 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Bari 1.11 / Modena 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.030 / def 0.915 | Modena attack 0.894 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Modena xG
46%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Modena FAQs
What time does Bari vs Modena kick off?
Bari vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Modena?
Bari 1 - 1 Modena.
Where is Bari vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Modena part of?
Bari vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 10) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 34% chance of winning, Modena a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bari and Modena will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Bari vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.03) and Modena's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 47 games and Modena's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.90
38%
2.64
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Bari xG
Total xG
2.08
0.97
Modena xG
2.90
34%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bari and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Bari and 0.97 for Modena, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bari's recent record stands at 17W 19D 10L from 46 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 18L across 46 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.52 PPG, Modena on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bari have managed 7W 11D 4L from their last 22 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 7W 3D 12L across their last 22 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Bari have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Modena
Blended
Bari (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Bari vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Modena in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 17W 19D 10L in their last 46 games (1.52 PPG), while Modena have gone 16W 12D 18L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Modena away?
Bari's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.45 PPG; Modena away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Bari or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Modena in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Dec 2022, when Bari won Bari 4-1 Modena.
Bari's record when hosting Modena specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bari
3
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Modena?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 2, Modena have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Bari 3-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 46%, Modena 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Bari) and 59% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bari have failed to score in 32% of games; Modena in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Modena matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bari's recent matches and 59% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bari and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Bari's recent games and 59% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Bari's recent matches and 73% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Modena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari and Modena finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.11 xG and Modena 0.97 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.03 / defence 0.92 against Modena attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 34% | Draw 38% | Modena 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 30%, Modena 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.52 PPG, Modena 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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