Mantova 2-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 38%, yet in-form Sampdoria provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mantova vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mantova host Sampdoria at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Mantova — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mantova at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Sampdoria have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sampdoria's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sampdoria are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Mantova's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Mantova, 1 for Sampdoria and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Mantova 1–0 Sampdoria — a Mantova win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 56% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 51% | Sampdoria 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mantova surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Sampdoria have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.33 xG and Sampdoria 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.034 / defence 1.365 | Sampdoria attack 0.859 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.070. Mantova's defence rating of 1.365 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sampdoria's projected output up. Data: built from Mantova's last 63 games and Sampdoria's last 63.
Result probabilities: Mantova 38% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 35%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.62 | Draw 3.66 | Sampdoria 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sampdoria (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mantova 70% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 38% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Mantova 1.33 / Sampdoria 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.034 / def 1.365 | Sampdoria attack 0.859 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Mantova (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sampdoria xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mantova vs Sampdoria FAQs
What time does Mantova vs Sampdoria kick off?
Mantova vs Sampdoria kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Mantova 2 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Mantova vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Sampdoria part of?
Mantova vs Sampdoria is a Serie B fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 38% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mantova and Sampdoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mantova vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mantova's attack at 1.03x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mantova's last 63 games and Sampdoria's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
38%
2.62
27%
3.66
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.59
1.25
Sampdoria xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mantova vs Sampdoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Mantova and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Mantova and 1.25 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova's recent record stands at 16W 19D 28L from 63 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 16W 24D 23L across 63 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.06 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 11W 9D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 3W 13D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.03 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
Mantova (Home) vs Sampdoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mantova
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Mantova vs Sampdoria Form FAQs
What form are Mantova and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 16W 19D 28L in their last 63 games (1.06 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 16W 24D 23L in their last 63 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Sampdoria away?
Mantova's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.40 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mantova have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Mantova's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Mantova
1
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Mantova vs Sampdoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Sampdoria?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Mantova have won 3, Sampdoria have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mantova and Sampdoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Mantova 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Sampdoria?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 53%, Sampdoria 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mantova) and 50% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Mantova have failed to score in 27% of games; Sampdoria in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mantova vs Sampdoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mantova and Sampdoria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Mantova's games and 70% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mantova and Sampdoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mantova's recent games and 50% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Sampdoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Mantova's recent matches and 70% of Sampdoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Sampdoria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Sampdoria 2-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.33 xG and Sampdoria 1.25 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.03 / defence 1.36 against Sampdoria attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 38% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 35%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 51%, Sampdoria 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.06 PPG, Sampdoria 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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