Cremonese 2-0 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Como at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 4W 4D 1L this season (9 games, 1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Como stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como away from home this season: 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 1.60 PPG versus Como's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Como in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 50% versus Como 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cremonese 39% | Como 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.42 xG and Como 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.123 / defence 1.108 | Como attack 0.983 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 1.259. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Cremonese games / 18 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 27% | Como 35%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Como 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 56% | Como 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 27% | Como 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Cremonese 1.42 / Como 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.123 / def 1.108 | Como attack 0.983 / def 1.271 | league avg home 0.998 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Como xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Como kick off?
Cremonese vs Como kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Como?
Cremonese 2 - 0 Como.
Where is Cremonese vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Como part of?
Cremonese vs Como is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 38% chance of winning, Como a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Como?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cremonese and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Como?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Como in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Como (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.67
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.79
1.37
Como xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.37 for Como, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 18 games, going 9W 5D 4L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (6W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.78 PPG, Como on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 4W 4D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.39 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Como in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 9W 5D 4L in their last 18 games (1.78 PPG), while Como have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Como away?
Cremonese's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.78 PPG; Como away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Como won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Como specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Como?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 4, Como have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Como last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cremonese 1-4 Como.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Como?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cremonese at 56%, Como at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cremonese) and 56% (Como).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cremonese's games and 78% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cremonese's recent games and 56% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Como tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Como in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Como.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Como 2-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.42 xG and Como 1.37 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Como landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.12 / defence 1.11 against Como attack 0.98 / defence 1.27, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 38% | Draw 27% | Como 35%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 39%, Como 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Como's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.78 PPG, Como 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.