Cremonese 1-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cremonese at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Brescia encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cremonese and Brescia meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

Cremonese (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Cremonese's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Brescia have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Brescia away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Cremonese's 2.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Brescia's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Cremonese edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Cremonese 3–0 Brescia — a Cremonese win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Cremonese — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Brescia — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 49% versus Brescia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cremonese 48% | Brescia 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.20 xG and Brescia 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.957 / defence 0.767 | Brescia attack 1.055 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.211. Cremonese have a tight defence (rating 0.767), which is pulling Brescia's projected output down. Data: built from Cremonese's last 21 games and Brescia's last 59.

Result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 32% | Brescia 29%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.52 | Draw 3.14 | Brescia 3.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cremonese's last 10 home games and Brescia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cremonese 30% (last 10 home games) | Brescia 60% (last 10 away games).

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