Lecco 0-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cremonese at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecco vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi to take on Lecco. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Lecco have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lecco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Lecco have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cremonese are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lecco, 1 for Cremonese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Cremonese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Lecco trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 59% versus Cremonese 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 59% | Cremonese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 1.08 xG and Cremonese 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.893 / defence 1.397 | Cremonese attack 1.007 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.196. Data: 22 Lecco games / 22 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecco 23% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 51%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Cremonese 1.96. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lecco 60% | Cremonese 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 23% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Lecco 1.08 / Cremonese 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.893 / def 1.397 | Cremonese attack 1.007 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Cremonese xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecco vs Cremonese kick off?
Lecco vs Cremonese kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Cremonese?
Lecco 0 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Lecco vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Cremonese part of?
Lecco vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 23% chance of winning, Cremonese a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lecco and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Lecco vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Lecco 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Lecco and Cremonese in?
Lecco (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lecco's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Lecco's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
23%
4.30
26%
3.81
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Lecco xG
Total xG
2.76
1.68
Cremonese xG
4.30
23%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
4%
23.17
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lecco and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Lecco and 1.68 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lecco's recent record stands at 5W 5D 12L from 22 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lecco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 5L across 22 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecco heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lecco have managed 3W 1D 6L from 10 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 6W 2D 2L across 10 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lecco are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.41 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Cremonese in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecco and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 5W 5D 12L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 12W 5D 5L in their last 22 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecco at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecco at home: 1.00 PPG; Cremonese away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Lecco or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecco have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Cremonese in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecco and Cremonese runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lecco
0
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecco have won 0, Cremonese have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Lecco 0-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Lecco and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecco 60%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Lecco and 60% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 40%; Lecco have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecco play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lecco's games and 50% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecco vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lecco's matches and 60% of Cremonese's.
Do Lecco and Cremonese tend to score early?
Lecco have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Lecco 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Lecco 0-1 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 1.08 xG and Cremonese 1.68 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lecco fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.89 / defence 1.40 against Cremonese attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 23% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 51%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 59%, Cremonese 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Lecco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.