Feralpisalo 5-1 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feralpisalo at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feralpisalo vs Lecco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feralpisalo host Lecco at Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Feralpisalo — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feralpisalo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Feralpisalo have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecco stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lecco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecco away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Feralpisalo at 1.20 PPG versus Lecco's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Feralpisalo have won 1, Lecco 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Feralpisalo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Feralpisalo in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Lecco in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 48% versus Lecco 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 57% | Lecco 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.55 xG and Lecco 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.932 / defence 1.163 | Lecco attack 0.877 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.188. Lecco bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Feralpisalo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Feralpisalo games / 21 Lecco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 45% | Draw 26% | Lecco 29%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Lecco 3.45. Feralpisalo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feralpisalo are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feralpisalo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Feralpisalo 40% | Lecco 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 45% | Draw 26% | Lecco 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Feralpisalo 1.55 / Lecco 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.932 / def 1.163 | Lecco attack 0.877 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Feralpisalo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Lecco xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feralpisalo vs Lecco kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Lecco kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Lecco?
Feralpisalo 5 - 1 Lecco.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Lecco part of?
Feralpisalo vs Lecco is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 45% chance of winning, Lecco a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Feralpisalo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Feralpisalo and Lecco will score (BTTS).
Will Feralpisalo vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Lecco?
Record (1 meetings): Feralpisalo 1W | Draws 0 | Lecco 0W.
What form are Feralpisalo and Lecco in?
Feralpisalo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Lecco (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Feralpisalo's attack at 0.93x the league average against Lecco's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lecco's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feralpisalo Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.83
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.76
1.21
Lecco xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
6%
16.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.21 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Lecco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feralpisalo come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 5D 12L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Feralpisalo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lecco sit at 0.95 PPG from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lecco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feralpisalo on 0.81 PPG, Lecco on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Feralpisalo's home form reads 2W 3D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecco have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 1.14 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Blended
Lecco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feralpisalo and Lecco in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 4W 5D 12L in their last 21 games (0.81 PPG), while Lecco have gone 5W 5D 11L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Lecco away?
Feralpisalo's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.90 PPG; Lecco away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
0
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Lecco?
From 2 meetings on record, Feralpisalo have won 2, Lecco have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Lecco last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Feralpisalo 5-1 Lecco.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Lecco?
Feralpisalo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 40%, Lecco 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Feralpisalo) and 60% (Lecco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 40% of games; Lecco in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feralpisalo play Lecco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 60% of Lecco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feralpisalo vs Lecco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Feralpisalo's matches and 60% of Lecco's.
Do Feralpisalo and Lecco tend to score early?
Feralpisalo have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Lecco in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feralpisalo run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Lecco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feralpisalo beat Lecco 5-1 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.55 xG and Lecco 1.21 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Feralpisalo beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against Lecco attack 0.88 / defence 1.24, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 45% | Draw 26% | Lecco 29%, with Feralpisalo to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 57%, Lecco 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Lecco's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feralpisalo 0.81 PPG, Lecco 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feralpisalo win broke the near-deadlock. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Lecco (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.