Pisa 2-3 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pisa face Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Spezia meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form
Pisa (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pisa's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Spezia's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Spezia have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Pisa, 0 for Spezia and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Pisa 0–0 Spezia — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Spezia — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 58% versus Spezia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 44% | Spezia 51%). Note also that Spezia surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while Pisa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.83 xG and Spezia 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.923 / defence 0.991 | Spezia attack 0.758 / defence 1.482. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.188. Spezia's defence rating of 1.482 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pisa's projected output up. Spezia's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Pisa's last 59 games and Spezia's last 21.
Result probabilities: Pisa 59% | Draw 23% | Spezia 17%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.69 | Draw 4.26 | Spezia 5.75. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 80% (last 10 home games) | Spezia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 22 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 59% | Draw 23% | Spezia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Pisa 1.83 / Spezia 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.923 / def 0.991 | Spezia attack 0.758 / def 1.482 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Pisa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Spezia xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Spezia FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Spezia kick off?
Pisa vs Spezia kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Spezia?
Pisa 2 - 3 Spezia.
Where is Pisa vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Spezia part of?
Pisa vs Spezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 22) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 59% chance of winning, Spezia a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pisa and Spezia will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Pisa vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pisa's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.76x) against Pisa's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 59 games and Spezia's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.26
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.73
0.89
Spezia xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
3%
36.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Spezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Pisa and 0.89 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Spezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 22D 20L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Spezia's form line: 8W 21D 30L from 59 games, 0.76 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.28 PPG from their last 29 home games (9W 10D 10L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 4W 8D 17L from their last 29 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.80 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Spezia
Blended
Pisa (Home) vs Spezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Pisa vs Spezia Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Spezia in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 17W 22D 20L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Spezia have gone 8W 21D 30L in their last 59 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Spezia away?
Pisa's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.28 PPG; Spezia away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Pisa or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Spezia in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Pisa and Spezia, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Spezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Spezia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 0, Spezia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Spezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2025: Spezia 3-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 66%, Spezia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pisa) and 55% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Spezia in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Spezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Spezia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Pisa's games and 48% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pisa and Spezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Pisa's recent games and 55% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Spezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Pisa's recent matches and 76% of Spezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spezia defy the odds to beat Pisa 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Pisa 2-3 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.83 xG and Spezia 0.89 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Spezia outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Spezia attack 0.76 / defence 1.48, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 59% | Draw 23% | Spezia 17%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Spezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 44%, Spezia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Spezia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Spezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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