Modena 3-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Modena's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Parma's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Parma have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, Parma are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Modena edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Modena 1–1 Parma — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 58% versus Parma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 46% | Parma 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.85 xG and Parma 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.835 / defence 1.043 | Parma attack 1.298 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.211. Parma bring a tight defence (rating 0.751, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Modena's projected output down. Parma have an above-average attack rating of 1.298, which lifts their away xG to 1.64. Data: built from Modena's last 59 games and Parma's last 59.
Result probabilities: Modena 18% | Draw 27% | Parma 55%. Fair-value odds: Modena 5.50 | Draw 3.70 | Parma 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Parma (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Modena 50% (last 10 home games) | Parma 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 18% | Draw 27% | Parma 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Modena 0.85 / Parma 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.835 / def 1.043 | Parma attack 1.298 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Parma (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Parma xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Parma FAQs
What time does Modena vs Parma kick off?
Modena vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Parma?
Modena 3 - 0 Parma.
Where is Modena vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Parma part of?
Modena vs Parma is a Serie B fixture (matchday 22) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 18% chance of winning, Parma a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Modena and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Modena vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.83) and Parma's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.30x) against Modena's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 59 games and Parma's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
18%
5.50
27%
3.70
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Modena xG
Total xG
2.49
1.64
Parma xG
5.50
18%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
4%
28.32
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.6 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Modena and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Modena and 1.64 for Parma, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Modena come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 16D 23L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.78 PPG from 59 outings (30W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Modena — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Modena's home form reads 11W 10D 8L across their last 29 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.62 points per game from their last 29 away games (13W 8D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.51 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Parma
Blended
Modena (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Modena vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Parma in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 20W 16D 23L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while Parma have gone 30W 15D 14L in their last 59 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.48 PPG; Parma away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Modena or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Parma in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won Modena 3-0 Parma on 27 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Modena
2
Draws
0
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Parma?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 2, Parma have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: Modena 3-0 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Parma?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 52%, Parma 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Modena) and 48% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Parma in 34%; Modena have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Parma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Modena's recent matches and 48% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Modena and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Modena's recent games and 48% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Modena's recent matches and 72% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Modena run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Parma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Parma 3-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.85 xG and Parma 1.64 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Parma landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Parma attack 1.30 / defence 0.75, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 18% | Draw 27% | Parma 55%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Modena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 46%, Parma 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Modena winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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