Brescia 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 35%, yet in-form Brescia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Brescia vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brescia and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Sudtirol have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Brescia. A 0.80 PPG lead over Sudtirol (1.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Brescia lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 50% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 33% | Sudtirol 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.21 xG and Sudtirol 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.863 / defence 1.014 | Sudtirol attack 1.002 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.188. Data: 58 Brescia games / 58 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 35% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 35%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Sudtirol 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 40% | Sudtirol 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 35% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Brescia 1.21 / Sudtirol 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.863 / def 1.014 | Sudtirol attack 1.002 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sudtirol xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Sudtirol kick off?
Brescia vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Brescia 1 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Brescia vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Sudtirol part of?
Brescia vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 35% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Brescia and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Sudtirol?
Record (3 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Brescia and Sudtirol in?
Brescia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brescia's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.00x) against Brescia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
35%
2.87
30%
3.33
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.41
1.21
Sudtirol xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Brescia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Brescia and 1.21 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brescia's recent record stands at 16W 21D 23L from 60 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 22W 21D 17L across 60 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Brescia against 1.45 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 8W 10D 11L from 29 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 11W 8D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Brescia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.12 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 16W 21D 23L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 22W 21D 17L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.17 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Brescia or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
3
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Sudtirol have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Brescia 0-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Sudtirol?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 48%, Sudtirol 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Brescia and 34% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 41%; Brescia have failed to score in 34% of games; Sudtirol in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Brescia's recent matches and 41% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Brescia's recent games and 34% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia and Sudtirol finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.21 xG and Sudtirol 1.21 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Sudtirol attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 35% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 35%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 33%, Sudtirol 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.15 PPG, Sudtirol 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.