Bari 0-2 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reggiana make the trip to Stadio Comunale San Nicola to face Bari in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bari have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bari have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stadio Comunale San Nicola — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reggiana (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Reggiana have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Bari, 1.10 for Reggiana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bari 0W, Reggiana 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bari 62% and Reggiana 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 38% | Reggiana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.57 xG and Reggiana 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.957 / defence 0.951 | Reggiana attack 1.080 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.188. Reggiana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Bari games / 21 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 45% | Draw 26% | Reggiana 29%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Reggiana 3.45. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bari 60% | Reggiana 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 45% | Draw 26% | Reggiana 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Bari 1.57 / Reggiana 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.957 / def 0.951 | Reggiana attack 1.080 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Bari (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Reggiana xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Reggiana kick off?
Bari vs Reggiana kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Reggiana?
Bari 0 - 2 Reggiana.
Where is Bari vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Reggiana part of?
Bari vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 45% chance of winning, Reggiana a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bari and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Reggiana?
Record (1 meetings): Bari 0W | Draws 1 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Bari and Reggiana in?
Bari (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Reggiana (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.96) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (1.08x) against Bari's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.86
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Bari xG
Total xG
2.79
1.22
Reggiana xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
6%
16.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bari and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Bari and 1.22 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bari come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 12D 4L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (5W 10D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Bari against 1.19 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bari's home form reads 3W 6D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Bari are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Reggiana in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 5W 12D 4L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 5W 10D 6L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Reggiana away?
Bari's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.50 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 4-1 on 14 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bari
3
Draws
2
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Reggiana?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Reggiana have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Bari 4-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bari see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 60%, Reggiana 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bari) and 70% (Reggiana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bari have failed to score in 30% of games; Reggiana in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Reggiana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bari's games and 50% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Bari's matches and 70% of Reggiana's.
Do Bari and Reggiana tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Bari 0-2 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.57 xG and Reggiana 1.22 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bari fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Reggiana attack 1.08 / defence 1.22, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 45% | Draw 26% | Reggiana 29%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 38%, Reggiana 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggiana's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.29 PPG, Reggiana 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.