Benevento 3-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 9 as Benevento welcome Cosenza to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Benevento — All Games: 3W 4D 1L from 8 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.62 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.88 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 2W 2D 0L from 4 Serie B appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 3W 2D 3L from 8 Serie B matches — 1.38 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza away from home this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.38 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.62 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.38 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Benevento in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cosenza in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 50% versus Cosenza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 25% | Cosenza 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.73 xG and Cosenza 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.196 / defence 1.050 | Cosenza attack 0.611 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.233. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Benevento games / 8 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 58% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 16%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Cosenza 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Benevento (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 50% | Cosenza 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 58% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Benevento 1.73 / Cosenza 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.196 / def 1.050 | Cosenza attack 0.611 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Benevento (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cosenza xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Cosenza kick off?
Benevento vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Cosenza?
Benevento 3 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Benevento vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Cosenza part of?
Benevento vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 58% chance of winning, Cosenza a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Benevento and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Cosenza in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-4D-1L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Cosenza (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benevento's attack at 1.20x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
58%
1.71
26%
3.83
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.52
0.79
Cosenza xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
3%
36.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Benevento and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Benevento and 0.79 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benevento's recent record stands at 3W 4D 1L from 8 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 3L across 8 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.62 PPG, Cosenza on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Cosenza away?
Benevento's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.00 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Benevento or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cosenza in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Benevento won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benevento's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
1
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Cosenza have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2023, when Cosenza 1-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Cosenza?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 50%, Cosenza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Benevento) and 25% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 50% of games; Cosenza in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Benevento's recent matches and 50% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Benevento's recent games and 25% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Benevento run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Cosenza 3-0 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.73 xG and Cosenza 0.79 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Benevento beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.20 / defence 1.05 against Cosenza attack 0.61 / defence 1.39, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 58% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 16%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 25%, Cosenza 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cosenza's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.62 PPG, Cosenza 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.