Brescia 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 23 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.75 PPG across 8 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 2L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 2.38 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 2L from 8 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.75 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.75 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Brescia — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 75% versus Cremonese 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 75% | Cremonese 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.49 xG and Cremonese 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.321 / defence 1.579 | Cremonese attack 0.843 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.159. Brescia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 Brescia games / 8 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 35% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 38%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Cremonese 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 100% | Cremonese 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 35% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Brescia 1.49 / Cremonese 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.321 / def 1.579 | Cremonese attack 0.843 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Cremonese xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Cremonese kick off?
Brescia vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Cremonese?
Brescia 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Brescia vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Cremonese part of?
Brescia vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 35% chance of winning, Cremonese a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Brescia and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Cremonese in?
Brescia (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 2.38 / GA 1.62 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brescia's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.84x) against Brescia's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.73
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Brescia xG
Total xG
3.03
1.54
Cremonese xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
8%
13.21
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Brescia and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Brescia and 1.54 for Cremonese, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brescia come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 2D 2L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Brescia against 2.00 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Brescia's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.75 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.38 scored and 0.75 conceded. Brescia's scoring rate against Cremonese's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Brescia have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Cremonese in 25%.
Defensively: Cremonese in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.33 PPG; Cremonese away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Brescia or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Cremonese in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 0-3 on 12 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
1
Draws
3
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Cremonese have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Cremonese 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Brescia, 33% for Cremonese — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Brescia and 33% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 33%; Cremonese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Brescia's games and 33% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Brescia's matches and 33% of Cremonese's.
Do Brescia and Cremonese tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brescia defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.49 xG and Cremonese 1.54 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.32 / defence 1.58 against Cremonese attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 35% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 38%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Brescia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 75%, Cremonese 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.75 PPG, Cremonese 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.