Cesena 2-0 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cesena at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cesena face Pescara.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pescara make the trip to Stadio Dino Manuzzi to face Cesena in Serie B (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Cesena (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cesena's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pescara have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pescara away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Cesena's last 10 home games and Pescara's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Cesena's games and 80% of Pescara's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Cesena edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Aug 2025, ended Cesena 3–1 Pescara — a Cesena win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cesena — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Pescara — key trading statistics (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cesena 68% and Pescara 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 54% | Pescara 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 2.01 xG and Pescara 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.976 / defence 1.134 | Pescara attack 0.966 / defence 1.606. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.026. Pescara's defence rating of 1.606 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cesena's projected output up. Data: built from Cesena's last 60 games and Pescara's last 22.
Result probabilities: Cesena 57% | Draw 23% | Pescara 20%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 1.74 | Draw 4.44 | Pescara 4.96. The model has a clear lean to Cesena (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cesena are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cesena's last 10 home games and Pescara's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cesena 70% (last 10 home games) | Pescara 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 57% | Draw 23% | Pescara 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Cesena 2.01 / Pescara 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.976 / def 1.134 | Pescara attack 0.966 / def 1.606 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Cesena (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Pescara xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cesena vs Pescara FAQs
What time does Cesena vs Pescara kick off?
Cesena vs Pescara kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 6 February 2026 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Pescara?
Cesena 2 - 0 Pescara.
Where is Cesena vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Pescara part of?
Cesena vs Pescara is a Serie B fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 57% chance of winning, Pescara a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cesena and Pescara will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cesena vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cesena's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Pescara's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — Pescara's attack (0.97x) against Cesena's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Cesena's last 60 games and Pescara's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
57%
1.74
23%
4.44
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Cesena xG
Total xG
3.13
1.12
Pescara xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
3%
37.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cesena vs Pescara Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Cesena and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Cesena and 1.12 for Pescara, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Pescara?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cesena come into this having played 22 games, going 10W 4D 8L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Pescara sit at 0.68 PPG from 22 outings (2W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Cesena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Pescara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cesena's home form reads 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Pescara have taken 0.40 points per game from their last 10 away games (0W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cesena are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.23 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Pescara in 73%.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Pescara
Blended
Cesena (Home) vs Pescara (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cesena
Blended
Pescara
Blended
❓ Cesena vs Pescara Form FAQs
What form are Cesena and Pescara in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 10W 4D 8L in their last 22 games (1.55 PPG), while Pescara have gone 2W 9D 11L in their last 22 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Pescara away?
Cesena's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.50 PPG; Pescara away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 6 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cesena
0
Draws
0
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Cesena vs Pescara H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Pescara?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Cesena have won 2, Pescara have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Pescara last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 February 2026: Cesena 2-0 Pescara.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Pescara?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Cesena, 80% for Pescara — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Cesena and 80% for Pescara. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cesena vs Pescara Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cesena and Pescara matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Cesena's games and 80% of Pescara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cesena and Pescara matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cesena's matches and 80% of Pescara's.
Do Cesena and Pescara matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Cesena's recent matches and 90% of Pescara's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cesena cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pescara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena beat Pescara 2-0 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 2.01 xG and Pescara 1.12 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pescara landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Pescara attack 0.97 / defence 1.61, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 57% | Draw 23% | Pescara 20%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 54%, Pescara 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Pescara's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cesena arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Cesena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Pescara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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