Brescia 3-2 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brescia and Perugia meet at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Brescia (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Brescia at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Perugia have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Perugia's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Brescia against 1.60 for Perugia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Brescia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Perugia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Brescia, 1 for Perugia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with Brescia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Perugia half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 53% versus Perugia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 32% | Perugia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.17 xG and Perugia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.125 / defence 1.010 | Perugia attack 0.840 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.077. Data: 38 Brescia games / 38 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 41% | Draw 31% | Perugia 28%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Perugia 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Brescia 60% | Perugia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 41% | Draw 31% | Perugia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Brescia 1.17 / Perugia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.125 / def 1.010 | Perugia attack 0.840 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Brescia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Perugia xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Perugia kick off?
Brescia vs Perugia kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Perugia?
Brescia 3 - 2 Perugia.
Where is Brescia vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Perugia part of?
Brescia vs Perugia is a Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 41% chance of winning, Perugia a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Brescia and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Perugia?
Record (2 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Perugia 1W.
What form are Brescia and Perugia in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Perugia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brescia's attack rating (1.12) and Perugia's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.84x) against Brescia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
41%
2.45
31%
3.19
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.08
0.91
Perugia xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Brescia and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Brescia and 0.91 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 17W 15D 6L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Perugia's form line: 14W 16D 8L from 38 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Brescia against 1.53 for Perugia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (8W 8D 3L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 8W 8D 3L from 19 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.05 scored and 0.84 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Perugia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Perugia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Perugia in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 17W 15D 6L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while Perugia have gone 14W 16D 8L in their last 38 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Perugia away?
Brescia's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.68 PPG; Perugia away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Brescia or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Perugia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Perugia won 4-0 on 4 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Perugia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Brescia
0
Draws
2
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Perugia?
From 5 meetings on record, Brescia have won 3, Perugia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Perugia 4-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Perugia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 58%, Perugia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Brescia) and 42% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Perugia in 42%; Perugia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Perugia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Brescia's games and 53% of Perugia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Brescia's recent games and 42% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Perugia tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Perugia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Perugia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Perugia 3-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.17 xG and Perugia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Brescia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Perugia outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.12 / defence 1.01 against Perugia attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 41% | Draw 31% | Perugia 28%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 32%, Perugia 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Perugia's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.74 PPG, Perugia 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.