Lecce 1-0 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lecce at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecce vs Pordenone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 38 as Lecce welcome Pordenone to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecce stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lecce have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Lecce are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Pordenone have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pordenone's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Lecce carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lecce, 0 for Pordenone and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Lecce winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lecce in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Pordenone in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 54% versus Pordenone 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 46% | Pordenone 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 2.01 xG and Pordenone 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 1.190 / defence 0.907 | Pordenone attack 0.568 / defence 1.576. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.080. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.576 — this is suppressing Lecce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Lecce games / 37 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 71% | Draw 21% | Pordenone 8%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 1.41 | Draw 4.76 | Pordenone 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Lecce (71%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lecce are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lecce 60% | Pordenone 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 71% | Draw 21% | Pordenone 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 38% | xG Lecce 2.01 / Pordenone 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 1.190 / def 0.907 | Pordenone attack 0.568 / def 1.576 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Lecce (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Pordenone xG
38%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Pordenone kick off?
Lecce vs Pordenone kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Pordenone?
Lecce 1 - 0 Pordenone.
Where is Lecce vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Pordenone part of?
Lecce vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 71% chance of winning, Pordenone a 8% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Lecce and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Pordenone?
Record (1 meetings): Lecce 1W | Draws 0 | Pordenone 0W.
What form are Lecce and Pordenone in?
Lecce (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Pordenone (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lecce's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Pordenone's defensive record (1.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Pordenone's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.3%), 3-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
71%
1.41
21%
4.79
8%
12.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.57
0.56
Pordenone xG
1.41
71%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
12.17
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
57%
1.74
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
41%
2.46
1%
90.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.5 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Lecce and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Lecce and 0.56 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Pordenone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lecce come into this having played 37 games, going 18W 14D 5L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Pordenone sit at 0.49 PPG from 37 outings (3W 9D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Lecce carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.35 PPG clear of Pordenone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lecce's home form reads 12W 5D 1L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Lecce are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pordenone have taken 0.28 points per game from 18 outings (1W 2D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lecce are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.78 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Defensively: Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Current Season
Pordenone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 18W 14D 5L in their last 37 games (1.84 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 3W 9D 25L in their last 37 (0.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Pordenone away?
Lecce's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.28 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.28 PPG.
Have Lecce or Pordenone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Pordenone in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Lecce
0
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecce have won 2, Pordenone have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2022, when Lecce 1-0 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Pordenone?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 56%, Pordenone 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lecce) and 44% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Pordenone in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lecce's recent matches and 44% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lecce's recent games and 44% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Pordenone tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lecce edge out Pordenone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Pordenone 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 2.01 xG and Pordenone 0.56 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lecce fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 1.19 / defence 0.91 against Pordenone attack 0.57 / defence 1.58, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 71% | Draw 21% | Pordenone 8%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 46%, Pordenone 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pordenone's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.49. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Pordenone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.