Vicenza Virtus 2-3 Brescia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Brescia at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Vicenza Virtus versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 1D 4L this season (5 games, 0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Brescia (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia away from home this season: 4W 1D 1L from 6 away games — 2.17 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Brescia arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Vicenza Virtus — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Brescia — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 50% versus Brescia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 50% | Brescia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 0.76 xG and Brescia 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.700 / defence 1.308 | Brescia attack 1.044 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 0.994 / away 1.126. Vicenza Virtus's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Vicenza Virtus games / 12 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 17% | Draw 29% | Brescia 55%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 5.88 | Draw 3.45 | Brescia 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Brescia (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 40% | Brescia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 17% | Draw 29% | Brescia 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Vicenza Virtus 0.76 / Brescia 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.700 / def 1.308 | Brescia attack 1.044 / def 1.090 | league avg home 0.994 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Brescia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Brescia xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia?
Vicenza Virtus 2 - 3 Brescia.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 17% chance of winning, Brescia a 55% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Brescia in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Brescia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (1.04x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
17%
5.89
29%
3.51
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.30
1.54
Brescia xG
5.89
17%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
4%
27.40
26%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 15.5 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.54 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 10L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia's form line: 7W 3D 2L from 12 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brescia are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vicenza Virtus have posted 0.20 PPG from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.92 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Brescia in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 10L in their last 12 games (0.33 PPG), while Brescia have gone 7W 3D 2L in their last 12 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.20 PPG; Brescia away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Brescia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Brescia?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Brescia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2022, when Brescia 2-0 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 40%, Brescia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Vicenza Virtus) and 60% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 60% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 60% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Brescia tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Brescia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Vicenza Virtus 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Vicenza Virtus 2-3 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 0.76 xG and Brescia 1.54 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Vicenza Virtus beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brescia outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.70 / defence 1.31 against Brescia attack 1.04 / defence 1.09, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 17% | Draw 29% | Brescia 55%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 50%, Brescia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.