Pordenone 0-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 13 as Pordenone welcome Ascoli to Stadio Guido Teghil. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pordenone have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pordenone have posted 0W 2D 4L at Stadio Guido Teghil — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 1L across 6 road games this term (1.83 PPG). They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.83 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Ascoli's 1.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Pordenone's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pordenone register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Ascoli in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Pordenone trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ascoli trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 50% versus Ascoli 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pordenone 50% | Ascoli 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 1.14 xG and Ascoli 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.899 / defence 1.743 | Ascoli attack 1.074 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.142. Ascoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Pordenone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Pordenone games / 12 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 19% | Draw 22% | Ascoli 59%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Ascoli 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Ascoli (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.14 / 2.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pordenone 67% | Ascoli 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 19% | Draw 22% | Ascoli 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Pordenone 1.14 / Ascoli 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.899 / def 1.743 | Ascoli attack 1.074 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Ascoli xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Ascoli kick off?
Pordenone vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Ascoli?
Pordenone 0 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Pordenone vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Ascoli part of?
Pordenone vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 19% chance of winning, Ascoli a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Pordenone and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Ascoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pordenone and Ascoli in?
Pordenone (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pordenone's attack at 0.90x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Pordenone's defence, projects 2.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
19%
5.40
22%
4.53
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Pordenone xG
Total xG
3.27
2.14
Ascoli xG
5.40
19%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
12%
8.49
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
2%
45.82
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Pordenone and 2.14 for Ascoli, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Ascoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pordenone's recent record stands at 0W 3D 9L from 12 games, a 0.25 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 4L across 12 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pordenone heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pordenone have managed 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 3W 2D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pordenone are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.42 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 0W 3D 9L in their last 12 games (0.25 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.33 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pordenone and Ascoli runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
0
Draws
2
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Ascoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Ascoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Ascoli 1-0 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pordenone at 67%, Ascoli at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pordenone and 67% for Ascoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pordenone have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pordenone's games and 83% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pordenone vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pordenone's matches and 67% of Ascoli's.
Do Pordenone and Ascoli tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ascoli edge out Pordenone 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Pordenone 0-1 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 1.14 xG and Ascoli 2.14 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pordenone fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ascoli landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.90 / defence 1.74 against Ascoli attack 1.07 / defence 1.25, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 19% | Draw 22% | Ascoli 59%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 50%, Ascoli 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ascoli's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Pordenone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.