Venezia 1-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 32 as Venezia welcome Udinese to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Udinese's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Udinese — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Venezia have won 0, Udinese 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Udinese in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 59% versus Udinese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 48% | Udinese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.16 xG and Udinese 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.744 / defence 1.576 | Udinese attack 0.825 / defence 1.482. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.246. Venezia's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.482 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Venezia games / 29 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 26% | Draw 28% | Udinese 47%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Udinese 2.13. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 60% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 26% | Draw 28% | Udinese 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Venezia 1.16 / Udinese 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.744 / def 1.576 | Udinese attack 0.825 / def 1.482 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Udinese (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Udinese xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Udinese kick off?
Venezia vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Udinese?
Venezia 1 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Venezia vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Udinese part of?
Venezia vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 26% chance of winning, Udinese a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Venezia and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Udinese?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 0 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Venezia and Udinese in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.74x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
26%
3.89
28%
3.60
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.78
1.62
Udinese xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
5%
19.67
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Venezia and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Venezia and 1.62 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia come into this having played 29 games, going 5W 7D 17L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.14 PPG from 29 outings (7W 12D 10L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 0.76 PPG, Udinese on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Venezia's home form reads 2W 4D 8L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 0.79 points per game from 14 outings (2W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.41 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Udinese in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 5W 7D 17L in their last 29 games (0.76 PPG), while Udinese have gone 7W 12D 10L in their last 29 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.71 PPG; Udinese away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Udinese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when Udinese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Venezia
0
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Udinese?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Udinese have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Udinese 3-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 64%, Udinese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Venezia) and 50% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 29% of games; Udinese in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Venezia's games and 50% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Venezia's recent games and 50% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Udinese tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Udinese in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Venezia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Venezia 1-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.16 xG and Udinese 1.62 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.74 / defence 1.58 against Udinese attack 0.82 / defence 1.48, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 26% | Draw 28% | Udinese 47%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 48%, Udinese 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 0.76 PPG, Udinese 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.