Fiorentina 1-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Venezia travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Artemio Franchi this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Across all Serie A games this season, Venezia have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Fiorentina have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 0, Venezia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Venezia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Venezia in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 58% versus Venezia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 64% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.65 xG and Venezia 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.198 / defence 0.964 | Venezia attack 0.630 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.248. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Fiorentina games / 31 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 57% | Draw 27% | Venezia 16%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Venezia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 40% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 57% | Draw 27% | Venezia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Fiorentina 1.65 / Venezia 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.198 / def 0.964 | Venezia attack 0.630 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Venezia xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Venezia kick off?
Fiorentina vs Venezia kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Venezia?
Fiorentina 1 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Fiorentina vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Venezia part of?
Fiorentina vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 57% chance of winning, Venezia a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fiorentina and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 0 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Venezia in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Venezia (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
57%
1.74
27%
3.71
16%
6.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.41
0.76
Venezia xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
6.36
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
3%
33.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.76 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fiorentina come into this having played 31 games, going 16W 5D 10L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.71 PPG from 31 outings (5W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fiorentina's home form reads 10W 2D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.84 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Venezia in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 16W 5D 10L in their last 31 games (1.71 PPG), while Venezia have gone 5W 7D 19L in their last 31 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Venezia away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.13 PPG; Venezia away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fiorentina's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fiorentina
1
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 1, Venezia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2025, when Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 47%, Venezia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Fiorentina and 47% for Venezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Venezia in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 47% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Fiorentina's matches and 47% of Venezia's.
Do Fiorentina and Venezia tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Venezia in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Venezia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Venezia 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.65 xG and Venezia 0.76 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.20 / defence 0.96 against Venezia attack 0.63 / defence 1.29, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 57% | Draw 27% | Venezia 16%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 64%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Venezia's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.