AS Roma 2-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Salernitana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Salernitana travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Salernitana — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Salernitana away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
On current form, AS Roma have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AS Roma, 0 for Salernitana and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 4–0 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Salernitana in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 48% versus Salernitana 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 48% | Salernitana 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.00 xG and Salernitana 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.062 / defence 0.926 | Salernitana attack 0.636 / defence 1.786. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.260. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.786 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 AS Roma games / 29 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 66% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 12%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Salernitana 8.33. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Salernitana 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 66% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 47% | xG AS Roma 2.00 / Salernitana 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.062 / def 0.926 | Salernitana attack 0.636 / def 1.786 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Salernitana xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Salernitana kick off?
AS Roma vs Salernitana kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Salernitana?
AS Roma 2 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is AS Roma vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Salernitana part of?
AS Roma vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 66% chance of winning, Salernitana a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AS Roma and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Salernitana?
Record (1 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 0 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Salernitana in?
AS Roma (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Salernitana (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
66%
1.52
23%
4.42
12%
8.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.75
0.74
Salernitana xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
8.61
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
2%
63.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.74 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma come into this having played 29 games, going 14W 6D 9L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.55 PPG from 29 outings (3W 7D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Roma's home form reads 7W 4D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.57 points per game from 14 outings (2W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.76 scored and 2.28 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Salernitana in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 14W 6D 9L in their last 29 games (1.66 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 3W 7D 19L in their last 29 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Salernitana away?
AS Roma's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.79 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.57 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Salernitana in 3%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Salernitana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when AS Roma won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AS Roma
2
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Salernitana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2024, when Salernitana 1-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Salernitana?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 29%, Salernitana 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (AS Roma) and 64% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Salernitana in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of AS Roma's recent matches and 50% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of AS Roma's recent games and 64% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Salernitana tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Salernitana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Salernitana 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 2.00 xG and Salernitana 0.74 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.06 / defence 0.93 against Salernitana attack 0.64 / defence 1.79, drawn from 31/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 66% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 12%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 48%, Salernitana 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Salernitana's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.