Napoli 2-3 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Napoli at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Napoli vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fiorentina make the trip to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to face Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Napoli's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this season.
Fiorentina (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Napoli against 1.80 for Fiorentina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Napoli lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Napoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Napoli — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 50% versus Fiorentina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 50% | Fiorentina 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.40 xG and Fiorentina 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.050 / defence 0.974 | Fiorentina attack 0.795 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.246. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Napoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Napoli games / 30 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 45% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 24%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Fiorentina 4.17. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Napoli 50% | Fiorentina 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 45% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Napoli 1.40 / Fiorentina 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.050 / def 0.974 | Fiorentina attack 0.795 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Napoli (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Fiorentina xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Fiorentina kick off?
Napoli vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Napoli 2 - 3 Fiorentina.
Where is Napoli vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Fiorentina part of?
Napoli vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 45% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Napoli and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Fiorentina?
Record (1 meetings): Napoli 1W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 0W.
What form are Napoli and Fiorentina in?
Napoli (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Napoli's attack at 1.05x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.80x) against Napoli's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.28
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.37
0.96
Fiorentina xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
6%
16.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Napoli and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Napoli and 0.96 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Napoli come into this having played 30 games, going 19W 6D 5L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (15W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Napoli's home form reads 8W 2D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.29 points per game from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Napoli are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.63 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 19W 6D 5L in their last 30 games (2.10 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 15W 5D 10L in their last 30 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Fiorentina away?
Napoli's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 1.86 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Napoli or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-3 on 4 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Napoli
2
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 6, Fiorentina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Fiorentina?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fiorentina see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 43%, Fiorentina 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Napoli) and 50% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fiorentina in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Napoli's recent matches and 64% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Napoli's recent games and 50% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Napoli 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Napoli 2-3 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.40 xG and Fiorentina 0.96 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Fiorentina attack 0.80 / defence 1.27, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 45% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 24%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Fiorentina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 50%, Fiorentina 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.67. Form was overturned, with Fiorentina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Napoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.