Spezia 1-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Venezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Venezia (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Spezia's favour (1.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Spezia 1W, Venezia 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Spezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 55% versus Venezia 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 55% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.14 xG and Venezia 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.820 / defence 1.074 | Venezia attack 0.677 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.274. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Spezia games / 29 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 38% | Draw 35% | Venezia 27%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Venezia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 50% | Venezia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 38% | Draw 35% | Venezia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Spezia 1.14 / Venezia 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.820 / def 1.074 | Venezia attack 0.677 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Spezia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Venezia xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Venezia kick off?
Spezia vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Venezia?
Spezia 1 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Spezia vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Venezia part of?
Spezia vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 38% chance of winning, Venezia a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Spezia and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Spezia and Venezia in?
Spezia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Venezia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Spezia's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.68x) against Spezia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
38%
2.63
35%
2.85
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.07
0.93
Venezia xG
2.63
38%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Spezia and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Spezia and 0.93 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 8W 4D 17L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Venezia's form line: 5W 7D 17L from 29 games, 0.76 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Spezia against 0.76 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 3W 3D 8L from 14 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.86 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Venezia in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 8W 4D 17L in their last 29 games (0.97 PPG), while Venezia have gone 5W 7D 17L in their last 29 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Venezia away?
Spezia's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.07 PPG; Venezia away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Spezia
1
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 3, Venezia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Spezia 2-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Venezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 57%, Venezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Spezia) and 50% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Venezia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Spezia's recent matches and 50% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Spezia's recent games and 50% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Venezia tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Venezia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Venezia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Venezia 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.14 xG and Venezia 0.93 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Venezia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.82 / defence 1.07 against Venezia attack 0.68 / defence 1.29, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 38% | Draw 35% | Venezia 27%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 55%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Venezia's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.97 PPG, Venezia 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.