Empoli 0-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 43%, yet in-form Spezia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Empoli vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Carlo Castellani plays host to Empoli versus Spezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 9 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Empoli (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Empoli's home record at Stadio Carlo Castellani: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Spezia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Spezia have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Spezia are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Empoli 0W, Spezia 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 64% versus Spezia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 55% | Spezia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.82 xG and Spezia 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.049 / defence 1.658 | Spezia attack 0.760 / defence 1.634. League average goals — home 1.060 / away 1.245. Spezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.634 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Empoli games / 31 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 43% | Draw 24% | Spezia 33%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Spezia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Spezia (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 90% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 43% | Draw 24% | Spezia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Empoli 1.82 / Spezia 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.049 / def 1.658 | Spezia attack 0.760 / def 1.634 | league avg home 1.060 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Empoli (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Spezia xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Spezia kick off?
Empoli vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Spezia?
Empoli 0 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Empoli vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Spezia part of?
Empoli vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 43% chance of winning, Spezia a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Empoli and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Spezia?
Record (1 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 1 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Empoli and Spezia in?
Empoli (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Spezia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Empoli's attack rating (1.05) and Spezia's defence rating (1.63), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.76x) against Empoli's defence (1.66x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
43%
2.33
24%
4.11
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Empoli xG
Total xG
3.39
1.57
Spezia xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
5%
18.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Empoli and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Empoli and 1.57 for Spezia, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli's recent record stands at 8W 9D 14L from 31 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 17L across 31 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Empoli against 1.03 for Spezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 3W 3D 9L from 15 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spezia's away record stands at 4W 1D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.03 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Spezia in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 8W 9D 14L in their last 31 games (1.06 PPG), while Spezia have gone 9W 5D 17L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Spezia away?
Spezia's away record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.80 PPG; Spezia away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Empoli
5
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Spezia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Spezia 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 87% for Empoli, 53% for Spezia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Empoli and 67% for Spezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of Empoli's games and 53% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Empoli's matches and 67% of Spezia's.
Do Empoli and Spezia tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Spezia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Empoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 32, as Empoli and Spezia drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.82 xG and Spezia 1.57 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Spezia landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.05 / defence 1.66 against Spezia attack 0.76 / defence 1.63, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 43% | Draw 24% | Spezia 33%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 55%, Spezia 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spezia's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.06 PPG, Spezia 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.