Udinese 5-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Dacia Arena to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Dacia Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Udinese are significantly better at Dacia Arena than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cagliari away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Udinese against 1.20 for Cagliari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Udinese lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 4–0 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 57% versus Cagliari 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 46% | Cagliari 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.40 xG and Cagliari 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.008 / defence 1.206 | Cagliari attack 0.708 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.253. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Udinese games / 30 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 43% | Draw 30% | Cagliari 27%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Cagliari 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 80% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 43% | Draw 30% | Cagliari 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Udinese 1.40 / Cagliari 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.008 / def 1.206 | Cagliari attack 0.708 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Udinese (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Cagliari xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Cagliari kick off?
Udinese vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Cagliari?
Udinese 5 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Udinese vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Cagliari part of?
Udinese vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 43% chance of winning, Cagliari a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Udinese and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Udinese and Cagliari in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Udinese's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.71x) against Udinese's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 28/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.30
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.47
1.07
Cagliari xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Udinese and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Udinese and 1.07 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 6W 12D 10L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Cagliari's form line: 5W 9D 14L from 28 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Udinese against 0.86 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (4W 7D 3L).
On the road, Cagliari have gone 3W 4D 7L from 14 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 0.89 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 6W 12D 10L in their last 28 games (1.07 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 5W 9D 14L in their last 28 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Cagliari away?
Udinese's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.36 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Udinese
3
Draws
0
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 5, Cagliari have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Cagliari 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Cagliari?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 64%, Cagliari 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Udinese) and 50% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Udinese's recent matches and 43% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Udinese's recent games and 50% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Cagliari tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Udinese run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Cagliari 5-1 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.40 xG and Cagliari 1.07 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.01 / defence 1.21 against Cagliari attack 0.71 / defence 1.30, drawn from 28/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 43% | Draw 30% | Cagliari 27%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 46%, Cagliari 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.07 PPG, Cagliari 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.