Udinese 1-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Dacia Arena to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 2W 2D 3L across 7 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.14 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dacia Arena, Udinese have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bologna have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.71 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.14 PPG for Udinese against 1.57 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Bologna — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 29% versus Bologna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 57% | Bologna 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.87 xG and Bologna 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.855 / defence 1.223 | Bologna attack 0.716 / defence 1.648. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.504. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.648 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Udinese games / 7 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 50% | Draw 23% | Bologna 27%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Bologna 3.70. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 25% | Bologna 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 50% | Draw 23% | Bologna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Udinese 1.87 / Bologna 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.855 / def 1.223 | Bologna attack 0.716 / def 1.648 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: Udinese (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bologna xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Bologna kick off?
Udinese vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Bologna?
Udinese 1 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Udinese vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Bologna part of?
Udinese vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 50% chance of winning, Bologna a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Udinese and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Udinese and Bologna in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Bologna (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.72x) against Udinese's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
50%
1.98
23%
4.43
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Udinese xG
Total xG
3.19
1.32
Bologna xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
4%
24.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Udinese and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Udinese and 1.32 for Bologna, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 2D 3L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bologna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.71 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bologna in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Bologna in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Bologna have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Bologna away?
Udinese's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.00 PPG; Bologna away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Udinese or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bologna in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
5
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Udinese) and 67% (Bologna) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Udinese and 67% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bologna in 33%; Udinese have failed to score in 67% of games; Bologna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Udinese's recent matches and 67% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Udinese's matches and 67% of Bologna's.
Do Udinese and Bologna tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bologna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Bologna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Udinese and Bologna drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.87 xG and Bologna 1.32 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Udinese fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.85 / defence 1.22 against Bologna attack 0.72 / defence 1.65, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 50% | Draw 23% | Bologna 27%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 57%, Bologna 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.