Bologna 3-0 Lazio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lazio at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 7 as Bologna welcome Lazio to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 2D 2L from 6 Serie A matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.33 conceded. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 0L this season (3 games, 2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.33 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 3W 2D 1L from 6 outings — 1.83 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lazio have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.83 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lazio are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.83 vs 1.33), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bologna register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Lazio in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Lazio trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bologna 67% and Lazio 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bologna 67% | Lazio 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.35 xG and Lazio 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.006 / defence 1.130 | Lazio attack 0.790 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.543. Data: 6 Bologna games / 6 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 37% | Draw 26% | Lazio 38%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Lazio 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 67% | Lazio 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 37% | Draw 26% | Lazio 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Bologna 1.35 / Lazio 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.006 / def 1.130 | Lazio attack 0.790 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.543 • Poisson stance: Lazio (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Lazio xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Lazio kick off?
Bologna vs Lazio kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Lazio?
Bologna 3 - 0 Lazio.
Where is Bologna vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Lazio part of?
Bologna vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 37% chance of winning, Lazio a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bologna and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lazio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and Lazio in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Lazio (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.01x the league average against Lazio's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
37%
2.74
26%
3.90
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.73
1.38
Lazio xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Bologna and 1.38 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 2D 2L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Bologna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lazio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 2.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Lazio in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Lazio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Lazio in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Lazio have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lazio away?
Bologna's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.33 PPG; Lazio away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bologna or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lazio in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Bologna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
2
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Lazio have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Bologna 0-2 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bologna at 67%, Lazio at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Bologna) and 33% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lazio in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bologna's games and 67% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Bologna's recent games and 33% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Lazio tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Lazio in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lazio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Lazio 3-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.35 xG and Lazio 1.38 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lazio landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Lazio attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 37% | Draw 26% | Lazio 38%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 67%, Lazio 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lazio's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.