Genoa 2-2 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Sassuolo travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 1W 2D 4L from 7 Serie A matches — 0.71 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 2.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 0W 1D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sassuolo — All Games: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 0.71 PPG, Sassuolo 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genoa 71% and Sassuolo 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Genoa 86% | Sassuolo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.71 xG and Sassuolo 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.025 / defence 1.314 | Sassuolo attack 0.898 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.504. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Genoa games / 7 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 37% | Draw 22% | Sassuolo 40%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | Sassuolo 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 100% | Sassuolo 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 37% | Draw 22% | Sassuolo 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Genoa 1.71 / Sassuolo 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.025 / def 1.314 | Sassuolo attack 0.898 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Sassuolo xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Sassuolo kick off?
Genoa vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Genoa 2 - 2 Sassuolo.
Where is Genoa vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Sassuolo part of?
Genoa vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 37% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 40% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Genoa and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Sassuolo in?
Genoa (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 2.29 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
37%
2.67
22%
4.48
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Genoa xG
Total xG
3.48
1.77
Sassuolo xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
17%
5.90
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
6%
15.78
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Genoa and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Genoa and 1.77 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Genoa have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 1W 2D 4L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sassuolo's form line: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 0.71 PPG, Sassuolo on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genoa have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Sassuolo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Sassuolo away?
Sassuolo's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.33 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Sassuolo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Genoa's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Genoa
2
Draws
0
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Sassuolo?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Sassuolo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Sassuolo?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Genoa at 100%, Sassuolo at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Genoa and 100% for Sassuolo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Genoa's games and 100% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Genoa's matches and 100% of Sassuolo's.
Do Genoa and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Sassuolo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Sassuolo finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.71 xG and Sassuolo 1.77 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.02 / defence 1.31 against Sassuolo attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 37% | Draw 22% | Sassuolo 40%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 86%, Sassuolo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 0.71 PPG, Sassuolo 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.