Sampdoria 3-3 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Udinese meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sampdoria have collected 0.83 PPG across 6 Serie A outings this season: 1W 2D 3L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 0W 1D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
Udinese (all games): 2W 1D 3L across 6 Serie A outings this term — 1.17 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.83 vs 1.17 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sampdoria 33% | Udinese 17%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 67% | Udinese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.90 xG and Udinese 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.785 / defence 1.296 | Udinese attack 0.637 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.520. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Sampdoria games / 6 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 27% | Draw 29% | Udinese 45%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Udinese 2.22. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 33% | Udinese 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 27% | Draw 29% | Udinese 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Sampdoria 0.90 / Udinese 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.785 / def 1.296 | Udinese attack 0.637 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.520 • Poisson stance: Udinese (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Udinese xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Udinese kick off?
Sampdoria vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Udinese?
Sampdoria 3 - 3 Udinese.
Where is Sampdoria vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Udinese part of?
Sampdoria vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 27% chance of winning, Udinese a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sampdoria and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Udinese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Udinese in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.64x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
27%
3.77
29%
3.46
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.15
1.26
Udinese xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
8%
13.23
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 14.6 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.26 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 1W 2D 3L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese's form line: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.17 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 17%.
Last 6 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Udinese in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Udinese have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Have Sampdoria or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Udinese in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Udinese have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Udinese?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 0, Udinese have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Udinese 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Sampdoria) and 17% (Udinese) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sampdoria) and 50% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Udinese in 33%; Sampdoria have failed to score in 50% of games; Udinese in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 17% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sampdoria's matches and 50% of Udinese's.
Do Sampdoria and Udinese tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Udinese in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria and Udinese share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria and Udinese finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.90 xG and Udinese 1.26 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Udinese outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.79 / defence 1.30 against Udinese attack 0.64 / defence 0.94, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 27% | Draw 29% | Udinese 45%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 67%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.83 PPG, Udinese 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sampdoria scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.