Pisa 1-2 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Milan at 73% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs AC Milan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and AC Milan meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie A (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Pisa (all games): 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pisa's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AC Milan have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, AC Milan have gone 5W 5D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AC Milan are 1.70 PPG clear of Pisa over their recent games (2.20 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2025, ended Pisa 2–2 AC Milan — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
AC Milan — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 51% versus AC Milan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 49% | AC Milan 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.48 xG and AC Milan 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.541 / defence 1.222 | AC Milan attack 1.358 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.205. Pisa's attack rating of 0.541 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.48. AC Milan bring a tight defence (rating 0.719, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pisa's projected output down. AC Milan have an above-average attack rating of 1.358, which lifts their away xG to 2.00. Pisa's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AC Milan's projected output up. Data: built from Pisa's last 24 games and AC Milan's last 61.
Result probabilities: Pisa 8% | Draw 19% | AC Milan 73%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 12.80 | Draw 5.33 | AC Milan 1.36. The model has a clear lean to AC Milan (73%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.48 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Milan at 73% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and AC Milan's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 20% (last 10 home games) | AC Milan 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, matchday 25 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 8% | Draw 19% | AC Milan 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Pisa 0.48 / AC Milan 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.541 / def 1.222 | AC Milan attack 1.358 / def 0.719 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.48
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
2.00
AC Milan xG
33%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs AC Milan FAQs
What time does Pisa vs AC Milan kick off?
Pisa vs AC Milan kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs AC Milan?
Pisa 1 - 2 AC Milan.
Where is Pisa vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs AC Milan part of?
Pisa vs AC Milan is a Serie A fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 8% chance of winning, AC Milan a 73% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Pisa and AC Milan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Pisa vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.54) and AC Milan's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 0.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AC Milan's attack (1.36x) against Pisa's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 24 games and AC Milan's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 0-3 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
8%
12.80
19%
5.33
73%
1.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
16.7%
Away win
0 – 3
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.48
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.48
2.00
AC Milan xG
12.80
8%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
1.36
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
14%
7.38
62%
1.62
Win to Nil
1%
94.52
45%
2.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs AC Milan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 0.48 expected goals for Pisa and 2.00 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs AC Milan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pisa's recent record stands at 23W 19D 19L from 61 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five.
AC Milan, meanwhile, have gone 32W 17D 12L across 61 games — 1.85 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AC Milan by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 14W 7D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Milan's away record stands at 16W 7D 7L across their last 30 away games, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.62 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
Pisa (Home) vs AC Milan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
❓ Pisa vs AC Milan Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 23W 19D 19L in their last 61 games (1.44 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 32W 17D 12L in their last 61 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or AC Milan away?
AC Milan's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.63 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Pisa or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AC Milan in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pisa
1
Draws
1
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs AC Milan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and AC Milan?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 0, AC Milan have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pisa and AC Milan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Pisa 1-2 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 43%, AC Milan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pisa) and 60% (AC Milan).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AC Milan in 37%; Pisa have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs AC Milan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and AC Milan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Pisa's recent matches and 60% of AC Milan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pisa and AC Milan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pisa's recent games and 60% of AC Milan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and AC Milan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Pisa's recent matches and 63% of AC Milan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Milan edge out Pisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.48 xG and AC Milan 2.00 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.54 / defence 1.22 against AC Milan attack 1.36 / defence 0.72, drawn from 24/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 8% | Draw 19% | AC Milan 73%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 49%, AC Milan 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
AC Milan's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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