Bologna 0-3 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AC Milan (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bologna face AC Milan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Bologna welcome AC Milan to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AC Milan stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AC Milan have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. AC Milan's 2.20 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Bologna's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
AC Milan have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Bologna's 1 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with AC Milan winning.
It is worth noting that AC Milan have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
AC Milan in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 57% versus AC Milan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | AC Milan 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.82 xG and AC Milan 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.863 / defence 1.067 | AC Milan attack 1.298 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.158. AC Milan's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AC Milan have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Bologna games / 60 AC Milan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 19% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 56%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | AC Milan 1.79. The model has a clear lean to AC Milan (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Milan are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 40% | AC Milan 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 19% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Bologna 0.82 / AC Milan 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.863 / def 1.067 | AC Milan attack 1.298 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.60
AC Milan xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs AC Milan kick off?
Bologna vs AC Milan kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs AC Milan?
Bologna 0 - 3 AC Milan.
Where is Bologna vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs AC Milan part of?
Bologna vs AC Milan is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 19% chance of winning, AC Milan a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bologna and AC Milan will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AC Milan?
Record (9 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 3 | AC Milan 5W.
What form are Bologna and AC Milan in?
Bologna (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. AC Milan (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.86x the league average against AC Milan's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AC Milan's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
19%
5.25
25%
4.01
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.42
1.60
AC Milan xG
5.25
19%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
4%
26.12
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.2 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bologna and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Bologna and 1.60 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs AC Milan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna's recent record stands at 24W 20D 16L from 60 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Milan, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 12L across 60 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.53 PPG, AC Milan on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 14W 9D 6L from 29 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Milan's away record stands at 15W 7D 7L across 29 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 24W 20D 16L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 31W 17D 12L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or AC Milan away?
AC Milan's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.76 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Bologna or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, AC Milan in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and AC Milan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AC Milan have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2026, when AC Milan won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting AC Milan specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bologna
3
Draws
6
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AC Milan?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 1, AC Milan have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and AC Milan last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Bologna 0-3 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 55%, AC Milan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bologna) and 59% (AC Milan).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; AC Milan in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play AC Milan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Bologna's games and 62% of AC Milan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs AC Milan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bologna's recent games and 59% of AC Milan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and AC Milan tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, AC Milan in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AC Milan run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Bologna 0-3 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.82 xG and AC Milan 1.60 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bologna fell 0.8 short of their projected output. AC Milan outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against AC Milan attack 1.30 / defence 0.76, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 19% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 56%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, AC Milan 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Milan's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.53 PPG, AC Milan 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Milan win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Milan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.