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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Pisa encounter.

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Match Analysis

Fiorentina host Pisa at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season.

Pisa — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Pisa have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Fiorentina carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fiorentina, 0 for Pisa and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Pisa in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 62% versus Pisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 62% | Pisa 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.93 xG and Pisa 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.072 / defence 1.147 | Pisa attack 0.938 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.216. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Fiorentina games / 25 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fiorentina 52% | Draw 22% | Pisa 26%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Pisa 3.85. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 80% | Pisa 70% BTTS from recent games.

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