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Poisson rates Genoa at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Genoa encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Genoa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cremonese's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.

Genoa — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Genoa have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Genoa's 0.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cremonese's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cremonese, 0 for Genoa and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Cremonese winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Cremonese trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Genoa trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 60% versus Genoa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Genoa 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.18 xG and Genoa 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.758 / defence 1.159 | Genoa attack 1.054 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.230. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Cremonese games / 62 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cremonese 30% | Draw 26% | Genoa 45%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Genoa 2.22. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 50% | Genoa 90% BTTS from recent games.

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