Napoli 3-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Napoli host Genoa at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Napoli — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Napoli's home record at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Genoa's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Napoli have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Napoli, 0 for Genoa and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Napoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 53% versus Genoa 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 50% | Genoa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.84 xG and Genoa 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.315 / defence 1.033 | Genoa attack 0.462 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.347. Napoli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Napoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Napoli games / 36 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 65% | Draw 24% | Genoa 11%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.54 | Draw 4.17 | Genoa 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 60% | Genoa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 65% | Draw 24% | Genoa 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 41% | xG Napoli 1.84 / Genoa 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.315 / def 1.033 | Genoa attack 0.462 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Napoli (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Genoa xG
41%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Genoa kick off?
Napoli vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Genoa?
Napoli 3 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Napoli vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Genoa part of?
Napoli vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 65% chance of winning, Genoa a 11% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Napoli and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Napoli 1W | Draws 0 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Napoli and Genoa in?
Napoli (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Genoa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Napoli's attack at 1.31x the league average against Genoa's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
65%
1.54
24%
4.24
11%
8.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.48
0.64
Genoa xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
8.80
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
2%
55.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Napoli and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Napoli and 0.64 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Napoli have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 22W 7D 7L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 4W 16D 16L from 36 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Napoli have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (10W 3D 5L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 1W 8D 9L from 18 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.75 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Genoa in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 22W 7D 7L in their last 36 games (2.03 PPG), while Genoa have gone 4W 16D 16L in their last 36 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Genoa away?
Napoli's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 1.83 PPG; Genoa away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Napoli or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Genoa in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Napoli go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Napoli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Napoli's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Napoli
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Napoli have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Genoa 2-3 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Genoa?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 50%, Genoa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Napoli) and 39% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Genoa in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Napoli's recent matches and 44% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Napoli's recent games and 39% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Genoa tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Genoa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Napoli run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Genoa 3-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.84 xG and Genoa 0.64 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.31 / defence 1.03 against Genoa attack 0.46 / defence 1.27, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 65% | Draw 24% | Genoa 11%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 50%, Genoa 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genoa's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.