Bologna 1-3 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bologna and Sassuolo meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 May 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Sassuolo have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sassuolo away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 3–0 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bologna 47% and Sassuolo 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Sassuolo 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.68 xG and Sassuolo 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.940 / defence 0.998 | Sassuolo attack 0.979 / defence 1.617. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.335. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.617 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Bologna games / 36 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 29%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Sassuolo 3.45. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 40% | Sassuolo 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Bologna 1.68 / Sassuolo 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.940 / def 0.998 | Sassuolo attack 0.979 / def 1.617 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Bologna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sassuolo xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Sassuolo kick off?
Bologna vs Sassuolo kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Bologna 1 - 3 Sassuolo.
Where is Bologna vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Sassuolo part of?
Bologna vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 45% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bologna and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sassuolo?
Record (1 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 0 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are Bologna and Sassuolo in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bologna's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.98x) against Bologna's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.81
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.98
1.30
Sassuolo xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
5%
18.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bologna and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Bologna and 1.30 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 11W 10D 15L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Sassuolo's form line: 12W 11D 13L from 36 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Bologna against 1.31 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 6W 5D 7L from 18 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.69 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 81%.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 11W 10D 15L in their last 36 games (1.19 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 12W 11D 13L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Sassuolo away?
Bologna's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.56 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Bologna or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 0-3 on 22 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bologna
3
Draws
1
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Sassuolo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Sassuolo?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 39%, Sassuolo 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Bologna and 83% for Sassuolo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Bologna's games and 83% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Bologna's matches and 83% of Sassuolo's.
Do Bologna and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Bologna 1-3 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.68 xG and Sassuolo 1.30 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sassuolo outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Sassuolo attack 0.98 / defence 1.62, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 45% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 29%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Sassuolo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Sassuolo 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sassuolo's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.19 PPG, Sassuolo 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.