Juventus 2-2 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventus vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Lazio travel to Allianz Stadium to take on Juventus. The game is scheduled for Monday 16 May 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium.
Lazio — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lazio away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Juventus) versus 1.90 (Lazio). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Juventus, 0 for Lazio and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Juventus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Juventus trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Lazio trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 56% versus Lazio 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 36% | Lazio 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.41 xG and Lazio 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.921 / defence 0.834 | Lazio attack 1.236 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.341. Lazio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Juventus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Lazio have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Juventus games / 36 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 37% | Draw 28% | Lazio 36%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Lazio 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juventus 40% | Lazio 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 16 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 37% | Draw 28% | Lazio 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Juventus 1.41 / Lazio 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.921 / def 0.834 | Lazio attack 1.236 / def 1.358 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Juventus (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Lazio xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Lazio kick off?
Juventus vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 16 May 2022 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Lazio?
Juventus 2 - 2 Lazio.
Where is Juventus vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Lazio part of?
Juventus vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 37% chance of winning, Lazio a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Juventus and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Lazio?
Record (1 meetings): Juventus 1W | Draws 0 | Lazio 0W.
What form are Juventus and Lazio in?
Juventus (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Lazio (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventus's attack at 0.92x the league average against Lazio's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.61
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.79
1.38
Lazio xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
9%
11.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Juventus and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Juventus and 1.38 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Juventus have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 20W 9D 7L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Lazio's form line: 18W 8D 10L from 36 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 1.92 PPG, Lazio on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Juventus have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 8W 3D 7L from 18 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventus are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 2.00 scored and 1.47 conceded. Lazio's attacking output running into Juventus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio in 61%.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Lazio in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 20W 9D 7L in their last 36 games (1.92 PPG), while Lazio have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Lazio away?
Juventus's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 1.89 PPG; Lazio away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Juventus or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lazio in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Juventus won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventus's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
3
Draws
3
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Lazio have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Juventus 2-2 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Lazio?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 39%, Lazio 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Juventus) and 83% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Juventus's recent matches and 61% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Juventus's recent games and 83% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Lazio tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Lazio in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus and Lazio share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus and Lazio finished level at 2-2 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.41 xG and Lazio 1.38 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.92 / defence 0.83 against Lazio attack 1.24 / defence 1.36, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 37% | Draw 28% | Lazio 36%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 36%, Lazio 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lazio's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.92 PPG, Lazio 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.