Torino 0-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Napoli at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Torino vs Napoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Torino welcome Napoli to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Torino have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Torino at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Napoli stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Napoli away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Torino) versus 1.70 (Napoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Torino have won 0, Napoli 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Napoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Torino in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Napoli in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 54% versus Napoli 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 43% | Napoli 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.19 xG and Napoli 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.987 / defence 1.010 | Napoli attack 1.073 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.316. Data: 35 Torino games / 35 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 31% | Draw 28% | Napoli 41%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Napoli 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Torino 70% | Napoli 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 31% | Draw 28% | Napoli 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Torino 1.19 / Napoli 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.987 / def 1.010 | Napoli attack 1.073 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Napoli (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Napoli xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Napoli kick off?
Torino vs Napoli kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Napoli?
Torino 0 - 1 Napoli.
Where is Torino vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Napoli part of?
Torino vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 31% chance of winning, Napoli a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Torino and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Napoli?
Record (1 meetings): Torino 0W | Draws 0 | Napoli 1W.
What form are Torino and Napoli in?
Torino (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Napoli (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Torino's attack at 0.99x the league average against Napoli's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
31%
3.27
28%
3.58
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Torino xG
Total xG
2.62
1.43
Napoli xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
7%
13.61
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Torino and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Torino and 1.43 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Torino come into this having played 35 games, going 12W 11D 12L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 2.00 PPG from 35 outings (21W 7D 7L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Torino — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Torino's home form reads 8W 5D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 2.18 points per game from 17 outings (11W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Torino are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.91 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Napoli in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 12W 11D 12L in their last 35 games (1.34 PPG), while Napoli have gone 21W 7D 7L in their last 35 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.71 PPG; Napoli away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Torino or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Napoli in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Torino and Napoli runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2023, when Napoli won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Torino's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Torino
1
Draws
7
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 2, Napoli have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Napoli 2-1 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 65%, Napoli 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Torino and 59% for Napoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Napoli in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Napoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Torino's games and 59% of Napoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Torino vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Torino's matches and 59% of Napoli's.
Do Torino and Napoli tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Napoli in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Torino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Torino 0-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.19 xG and Napoli 1.43 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Torino fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against Napoli attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 31% | Draw 28% | Napoli 41%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 43%, Napoli 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Napoli's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.