Empoli 1-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 40%, yet in-form Salernitana provide a compelling counter-argument — this Empoli vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Salernitana travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Carlo Castellani — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Salernitana's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Salernitana are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Empoli register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Salernitana in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Empoli, 0 for Salernitana and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 4–2 with Empoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Salernitana in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 67% versus Salernitana 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 58% | Salernitana 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.58 xG and Salernitana 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.015 / defence 1.567 | Salernitana attack 0.697 / defence 1.393. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.324. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.393 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Empoli games / 36 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 40% | Draw 26% | Salernitana 34%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Salernitana 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Salernitana (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 90% | Salernitana 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 40% | Draw 26% | Salernitana 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Empoli 1.58 / Salernitana 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.015 / def 1.567 | Salernitana attack 0.697 / def 1.393 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Empoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Salernitana xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Salernitana kick off?
Empoli vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Salernitana?
Empoli 1 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Empoli vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Salernitana part of?
Empoli vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 40% chance of winning, Salernitana a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Empoli and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Salernitana?
Record (1 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Empoli and Salernitana in?
Empoli (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Salernitana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Empoli's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.81
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Empoli xG
Total xG
3.02
1.44
Salernitana xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
9%
10.64
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Empoli and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Empoli and 1.44 for Salernitana, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli come into this having played 36 games, going 9W 10D 17L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.83 PPG from 36 outings (7W 9D 20L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.03 PPG, Salernitana on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Empoli's home form reads 4W 4D 10L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.83 points per game from 18 outings (4W 3D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.89 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 7W 9D 20L in their last 36 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Salernitana away?
Empoli's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.89 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Empoli have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Empoli's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Empoli
2
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 4, Salernitana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when Salernitana 1-3 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Salernitana?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Empoli at 83%, Salernitana at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Empoli and 61% for Salernitana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Empoli's games and 56% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Empoli's matches and 61% of Salernitana's.
Do Empoli and Salernitana tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Salernitana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Salernitana finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.58 xG and Salernitana 1.44 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.01 / defence 1.57 against Salernitana attack 0.70 / defence 1.39, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 40% | Draw 26% | Salernitana 34%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 58%, Salernitana 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.03 PPG, Salernitana 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.39 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.